How during the pandemic couples have changed their plans to have children

 As now people live longer and fertility rates are declining, the postponement of the retirement age is almost inevitable to address the issue of balance between generations, unless we have more births. A recent survey from Canada can help understanding why couples postpone or abandon childbearing and it shows that marriage is a key positive factor mitigating the negative effect of the pandemic on birth rates.

Last year the Commission on Pensions recommended to raise the State retirement age to 68 in order to maintain a sustainable pension system and the Government is considering this possibility.

We can’t have too many elderly people without a substantial cohort of younger population paying for their pensions. To tackle the problem of an aging population importing, other solutions are possible: importing working force through immigration and incrementing the birth rate. These are not mutually exclusive, and immigrants also tend to produce more children than natives, at least initially, before they conform to the local trends.

The birth rate in Ireland has constantly declined, reaching its lowest point during the pandemic. According to the last figures available, in the second quarter of last year the number of births in Ireland dropped by 14.6pc, compared to the previous year.

With the exception of Scandinavian countries, this is a common trend but Ireland experienced the second bigger drop in Europe.

We don’t have proper studies yet on who has delayed or stopped having children here in response to the pandemic, and why Covid is impacting Ireland’s fertility rate more negatively than other countries, but we can get some insights from studies conducted abroad.

For instance, a recent survey of the Canada statistics office explores how during the pandemic couples have changed their plans to have children. It emerged that almost a quarter (24pc) of people aged 15-49 have changed their intentions. 19.2pc want to postpone childbearing or have fewer children while 4.3pc want more children or earlier childbearing.

This is not surprising but let’s explore more the demographic characteristics of those who have negatively revised their fertility plans.

The difference between sexes is not significant: 18.5pc of men and 19.9pc of women want to postpone or stop having babies.

The existence of other children, instead, is a significant factor. Non-parents are twice more likely to postpone or not begin childbearing compared to those who already have children (25pc vs 12pc).

With regard to age groups, those between 25 and 34 were more likely (30.5pc) to negatively revise their fertility plans. This is understandable as they are also those who are more likely to consider whether or not having children soon, compared to the younger or older cohort, who might think that this issue is not yet, or anymore, relevant for them. (The current mean age of mothers is 31.3.)

When looking at the conjugal status, the percentage of those people who changed negatively their fertility plans is lower among those who are married (14.2pc) compared to couples who are not living together (28.6) or cohabiting (20.6).

This proves that people in stable committed relations are feeling less the impact of great uncertainty and economic downturn following from the pandemic.

Being an immigrant was not found to hold a significant bearing on the likelihood of changing one’s fertility plans.

Age, being married and already having children are the key factors that mitigate the decision to delay or abandon childbearing.

If we want to increase the birth rate in Ireland, we need similar studies tracking trends in fertility intentions here. Understanding the sociodemographic characteristics of couples and of women of fertile age, will help to inform and plan long-term policies.