Notes on the referendums

The historical significance of the referendums on Friday, 8th March, and the subsequent reactions cannot be overstated. Precisely because it is history, we cannot yet appreciate what it means and what it will lead to. History is written retrospectively, and we are still very much in the middle of it. In some months, or probably years, we will understand what happened.

The referendums represent a seismic shift in the political and social landscape, akin to a volcanic eruption of public sentiment, reminiscent of the unexpected upheaval witnessed on 23rd November. In both cases, something unexpected shook the system profoundly, and it was immediately misrepresented and misunderstood.

This outpouring of dissent underscores a profound and growing disjunction within the liberal consensus that has long dominated our political and social discourse. At the heart of these eruptions lies the undeniable fact that a significant portion of the Irish populace finds itself politically and publicly unrepresented, a condition that, if continually repressed, promises only more powerful and potentially violent reactions.

I will use two simple categories to help our interpretation of current events: time and space. I am talking about political time and political space.

The recent history of Ireland is not so much different from what has happened in Europe. What is instead peculiar is its speed. Ireland has experienced in 20 years the changes that in most of Western Europe have occurred in 70 years. (Eastern Europe is somehow different, due to its history). I am thinking of a process of secularisation, the destruction of traditional life, low birth rates, mass immigration, liberalism as the hegemonic ideology, etc. Ireland is still a little bit behind but before the end of this year or at the beginning of the next it will catch up. In terms of political space, Ireland is peculiar because at the moment, but not for long in the future, a relatively large sector of the political spectrum is repressed and silenced.

In Europe there are seven political families: 1) far-left, 2) Green, 3) Social Democrats, 4) Liberals, 5) Christian Democrats, 6) Conservatives, and 7) right-wing nationalists. In Ireland, the last two political families have no representation in the Oireachtas, locally, or among the MEPs. Similarly, that same political and ideological cohort is underrepresented in the public arena. Conservative dissenting voices are rare on RTE or on the radio, while right-wing nationalism is not only non-existent but actively censored and vilified.

We could discuss the historical reasons for this, if we had time, but this is the reality. On Friday 8^th March, that cohort of society found an explosive expression that shook the system profoundly. The whole political establishment, parties and parasite NGOs that were supposed to represent almost the entire spectrum of society, experienced an astonishing rebuttal.

This will happen again, in different forms. In politics, we will see some surprising results, particularly at the local level at the next elections in June. I also expect the referendum on the Unified Patent Cour to fail.

It is also probable to see here in Ireland in the next few months, or at the latest next year for the general election, the emergence of new leaders of this unrepresented cohort.

In almost every other country, we have seen the raising of anti-establishment sentiments, transcending traditional left-right dichotomies to encapsulate a broader disillusionment with the status quo. (Podemos in Spain is a left-wing party, while the Italian Five Stars is post-ideological.) The closest thing so far, in Ireland, is Sinn Féin, which attracted that sort of anti-establishment vote. They will suffer more than any other party when it will happen here.

It is difficult to label that cohort of society. Right or left are not useful categories in politics anymore. For want of better words, I will call our side the Gripters, i.e., those who read Gript. You don’t have to agree with everything Gript says, but you know that when Ben Scallan asks a question, he is speaking on your behalf, and no one else will do it otherwise. This is what I mean by the Gripters.

 

What can we learn from the referendum? What went well?

Such an enormous result requires complex explanations, and obviously, little depended on the No campaign. This was poor and uncoordinated. There was practically no proper campaign, and that makes the results even more astonishing. Nonetheless, a couple of things can be appreciated in the No side.

It was really plural, including people and groups, many of which were spontaneous, who disagree on many other issues. This proves that the liberal consensus is fragile, much weaker than it appears. And when you are able to bring part of that sector on your side, you can win. This can be easily replicated on issues such as free speech or trans ideology.

Moreover, the Government wanted to present the referendums as another episode of the old vs new Ireland saga, but it didn’t work. Strategically, we—the religious conservatives—avoided being at the front and worked more on the background.

Senator McDowell, an old-fashioned liberal, did an egregious job for us. Our people emerged only at the right moment but were not perceived to be the main leaders of the No side. How this can be replicated is something I’m not sure of.

Last Saturday, when we were celebrating in a hotel in the city centre, someone asked me how to capitalize on this victory. On reflection, I would say that we have won because we have capitalized on our 2018 loss. Not only did we not give up, but we created an alternative voice that was missing in the public arena. This is how Gript was established. Gript played a role in the No vote and will continue to be an alternative voice that challenges the consensus.

So, my invitation is to create and maintain independent alternatives. Create groups and occasions where people can meet and elaborate strategies. Avoid destructive practices; create instead. Screaming at politicians or burning a bus creates no alternative. Translate your anger and disillusionment into creative power. Create communication, online and in real life. Create networking, help, coordination when it is needed.

Also, fight your enemies, not your allies. Avoid internal conflicts.

This moment of profound change offers an unprecedented opportunity that must be seized with both imagination and determination.