In Ireland, the number of births continues to exceed deaths, but only thanks to the contribution of immigrant communities. In the first quarter of 2025, for the first time on record, more Irish nationals died than were born, a watershed moment. The overall fertility rate for the country is now 1.5, well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per couple.
According to the latest Vital Statistics from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), 13,665 births were registered in the first three months of 2025. This continues the downward trend of recent years: ten years earlier, in Q1 2015, there had been 17,183 births, even though the overall population was smaller.
In the first three months of 2025, there were 10,230 deaths, leaving a modest natural increase overall. In other words, there were more births than deaths. There are always more deaths in the winter months, for obvious reasons.
However, when broken down by ethnicity and nationality, the picture becomes more complex.
The CSO publishes data on the nationality of the mother, rather than her country of birth. Some Irish-national mothers would been born abroad but later gained citizenship. Even so, the number of births to Irish mothers (whether born here or overseas) has been falling sharply. Compared with Q1 2022, births to Irish citizens were down by 2,858, a drop of 23pc. In proportional terms, Irish citizens accounted for 77.5pc of births in Q1 2021, but only 70.6pc in Q1 2025.
By contrast, births to non-Irish mothers have risen. The sharpest increase is among those from outside Europe, where births have more than doubled (+115pc) since 2021. In Q1 2025, non-Irish mothers accounted for about 4,000 births, or nearly 30pc of the total.
The new figures from the CSO also show that 39.9pc of births in Q1 2025 were outside marriage, with the figure higher among Irish mothers (45.5pc).
More than 80pc of births to mothers born outside of Europe were within marriage. This is because Indians, Nigerians, Filipinos and so are still far more attached to traditional values than are Irish-born people.
The average age of mothers has also been rising. In Q1 2025 it was 33.2 years, compared with 32.5 years ten years earlier. Irish mothers were slightly older, at 33.4 years.
There were 10,230 registered deaths in Ireland in Q1 2025, 7pc more when compared with the same period in 2024. The overall births (13,665) exceeded deaths by 3,435. This means that the population is growing, without considering immigration and emigration. But it is a small natural increase, about 60pc smaller than ten years ago.
With regard to deaths, while the CSO did not publish an ethnic breakdown for Q1 2025, we can rely on provided data for 2017–2022.
Using those proportions as a guide, it can be estimated that around 95pc of deaths were among ‘White Irish’ (the CSO’s term), equivalent to roughly 9,719 deaths. This figure is slightly higher than the number of births to Irish mothers in the same quarter (about 9,647).
One quarter’s data is not enough to draw firm conclusions, and it is better to wait for the full-year figures. Nevertheless, the trend can be expected to go further in this direction over time.
Overall, while the Irish-national population is edging towards decline, non-Irish births are sustaining population growth. The demographic balance is shifting, and children of migrant backgrounds now make up a rising share of Ireland’s future generations, a change that will become increasingly visible in schools and communities in the decade ahead.
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