Deaths outnumbered births by 1.26m in the EU last year

 

Fresh figures from Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics office, show the scale of Europe’s demographic challenge. In 2024, there were about 4.82 million deaths across the EU but only 3.56 million births, a deficit of almost 1.3m. In other words, when you compare births with deaths alone, Europe’s population is shrinking.

So why is the EU’s population still increasing? The answer is immigration. The EU’s total population grew by around 1.1 million people last year. This was entirely thanks to newcomers arriving from outside the Union.

This is what statisticians call “net migration”: the difference between the number of people moving into the EU and the number leaving it. In 2024, there were about 2.3 million more people arriving than departing, and this more than made up for the shortfall of births.

By contrast, since 2012, “natural change” (births minus deaths) has been negative every single year, meaning deaths have always outnumbered births since then. Immigration is now the only reason why the EU population is still growing at all.

Ireland’s position in these statistics is striking. In 2024, it had one of the fastest-growing populations in the EU, increasing by 16.3 people per 1,000 residents. Only Malta grew faster (19.0 per 1,000), while Luxembourg came third (14.7). But Malta and Luxembourg both have populations below 1 million people.

Most of Ireland’s growth came from immigration. Its net migration rate was 12.8 per 1,000 people, far above the EU average.

But unlike most EU countries, Ireland also saw a “natural increase” in its population of just under 19,000. In fact, Ireland recorded the highest natural increase in the EU, showing the largest positive gap between births and deaths, relative to its population. But the Irish figure is still half what it was 10 years ago.

The reason for Ireland’s relative high rate of natural increase is because it has a younger population than most of Europe.  For decades, Ireland also had a higher fertility rate (average number of children per woman) than most EU countries. Even though Ireland’s fertility rate has declined in recent years (from about 2.0 in 2002 to 1.5 in 2023), it is still above the EU average (1.38 in 2023).

But because today’s Irish fertility rate is also below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, this natural increase cannot last indefinitely. The youthful age profile that Ireland still enjoys is a temporary demographic advantage that it is gradually fading. Unless fertility rises meaningfully, Ireland will face the same pattern seen across the rest of Europe, just a little later.

In fact, the CSO has predicted that in about 20 years deaths will outnumber births here also.

Altogether, only six EU countries (Ireland, France, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta and Sweden) had a natural population increase last year. Everywhere else, deaths outweighed births.

It is also worth noting that every EU country except Latvia gained people through immigration in 2024. But even in this picture, Ireland stands out for how much it relies on immigration to fuel its population growth.

Eurostat also tracks family trends. Across the EU, the marriage rate (number of marriages per 1,000 people) now stands at about 4.0. This is much lower than in past decades, reflecting a long-term decline.

Ireland’s figure is below the EU average, at 3.7 marriages per 1,000 adults, its lowest ever figure.

Therefore, both marriage and birth rates are declining together.