Additionally, 201 Irish residents had abortions in England, based on the most recent UK statistics (referring to 2022), and 10 Irish residents had abortions in the Netherlands (in 2023).
The upward trend is clear. Abortion has become more socially accepted, and the legal framework introduced after the referendum has significantly increased requests.
One measurable outcome of this shift is the abortion ratio, i.e. the number of abortions compared to births. In 2024, there were 201 abortions for every 1,000 live births, meaning approximately 16.8pc of known pregnancies (excluding miscarriages and stillbirths) ended in abortion. To put this in context, let’s consider the figures from when abortion was legal in Ireland only to save the life of the mother.
In 2018, 2,879 Irish women had abortions in England, equivalent to 47 abortions per 1,000 live births, or 4.5pc of know pregnancies.
Pro-choice campaigners told the Oireachtas Committee on abortion in 2017 that around 5,000 Irish women were having abortions annually at that time, between women travelling to England, and women buying the abortion pill illegally. This would be an upper estimate of the total number.
This upper estimate means that at most there were about 82 abortions per 1,000 live births in 2018.
This means that since the repeal of the Eighth Amendment, the proportion of pregnancies ending in abortion increased hugely from 7.6pc (taking the pro-choice claim at face value) to 16.8pc. This sharp increase is one of the most striking consequences of the 2018 referendum.
Setting aside for a moment all moral considerations, let’s see how the growing number of abortions has an impact on the future population.
The current fertility rate in Ireland is just 1.5 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1. At this rate, assuming no emigration or immigration, Ireland’s population would decline to around 3.05 million in 50 years-time from 5.3 today. Of course, there will surely be lots of net immigration, but we can still see what a low birth rate can do.
Fertility rates reflect only live births because they are calculated as the average number of children a woman would have in a lifetime, but if abortions are included in the calculation, the adjusted fertility rate for Ireland in 2024 would raise to approximately 1.78.
This is still below the replacement level, but significantly higher than the current rate.
A 1.78 rate means that, assuming no emigration or immigration, Ireland’s population would decline to around 4.04 million in 2075, a much smaller drop.
What is more concerning is that as the abortion rate is increasing, the impact on the future population is likely to be even more dramatic.
The figures outlined above make it clear that the abortion referendum in 2018 has brought about not only a legal and cultural shift, but also a significant demographic one. The significant rise of the abortion ratio within less than a decade is a measurable and consequential outcome. The broader societal implications, particularly in terms of declining fertility and long-term population reduction, should not be overlooked.
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