The demographic crisis and what to do about it

 

Social attitudes towards the family and children need to be reshaped if we want to address sharply declining birth rates and the increasing phenomenon of unplanned childlessness, a major new report from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) says.

States need to promote policies that promote family formation, the report says while also emphasising the positive role of religion on fertility rates, which is something a new research paper from The Iona Institute addresses.

The report titled “Demographic Change in the OSCE Region: Analysis, Impact and Possible Solutions of a Mega Trend Reshaping Society” was presented last week when the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE met in Vienna.

Authored by Dr. Gudrun Kugler, who is the Special Representative on Demographic Change and Security, the report addresses the pressing issue of demographic shifts among the 57 state members of the OSCE.

In almost all OSCE countries, including Ireland, fertility rates are below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, leading to long-term economic and social challenges, particularly for pension systems and healthcare infrastructure.

Migration partially offsets population decline but, according to the report, “governments should avoid relying on mass migration as the primary solution to labour shortages, as this can contribute to brain drain, destabilization in countries of origin, integration challenges, and the emergence of new inequalities and social tensions in recipient societies”.

The document notes that in countries such as India, Bangladesh, and much of East and Southeast Asia, birth rates are already below replacement. Africa is going in the same direction even if fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa remain well above replacement level for now.

Declining birth rates around the world means that the supply of potential migrants will decline soon and eventually, countries will run out of potential immigrants to sustain their aging economies. This is why a recent Guardian report  projecting high immigration into Europe as a way of addressing population ageing and decline is overoptimistic. It is extremely unlikely that immigration into Europe will remain as high as it is now for another 75 years until the end of the century.

The document proposes a series of solutions, notably emphasising the pivotal roles of family and religion in counteracting declining birth rates and unplanned childlessness.

The first recommendation is for the establishment of dedicated research centres and the allocation of resources to study demographic trends. “Which personal choices might be more likely to lead to childlessness should be researched and be part of educational curricula”, the document suggests. This foundational knowledge is deemed essential for formulating effective policies and interventions.

The second set of recommendations regards cultural and societal shifts. “A broad cultural transformation is needed to create an environment that supports family formation and its stability over time, child rearing, and work-life balance. This includes fostering positive attitudes towards parenthood, marriage, and family life, emphasizing the value of stability in family structures”, the report remarks, “Public perceptions and social policies should avoid stigmatizing stay-at-home parents and should work towards increasing the social prestige of having children, family life and parental involvement.”

The report also advocates for financial incentives for families, including direct tax benefits, pension bonuses for parents, and reductions in the costs of child-rearing.

Finally, the OCSE document highlights the significant influence of religious communities in promoting family values.

“Religion plays a significant role in family values, and research shows that people with faith adherences tend to have higher birth rates. A balanced approach that respects religious beliefs and supports family life can help create a more inclusive society. Governments must recognize the positive impact that religious institutions can have on family stability and uphold freedom of religion.”, the report says.

Beyond addressing fertility issues, the document acknowledges the challenge of an ageing population and promotes policies that encourage older individuals to remain active in the workforce and community, so that they are less dependent on the younger generations.

Number of abortions in Northern Ireland continues to surge

 

The number of abortions being carried out in Northern Ireland has increased by a massive 29pc in a single year, according to official statistics published by the Department of Health. The figure of 2,792  is three times the number of Northern Ireland women who went to England for abortions before the law in the North was liberalised in 2019. This mirrors what is happening in the South where 10,000 abortions were carried out in 2023.

The new figures indicate that the number of abortions in Northern Ireland rose from 2,168 in the financial year 2022/23 to 2,792 in 2023/24. Notably, 97pc of these procedures were carried out under Ground A, which permits abortion for any reason before 12 weeks of gestation.

In Northern Ireland, abortion was decriminalised in October 2019. Before this, it was only permitted in limited circumstances, such as when it was necessary to save the life of the mother or prevent permanent and severe harm. As a result, the number of abortions performed in Northern Ireland was extremely low. Only 22 cases were recorded in 2019.

In the same year, 1,014 women from Northern Ireland travelled to England for abortion procedures, which were funded by the UK government. In cases of financial hardship, travel costs were also covered.

With the introduction of new liberal regulations in March 2020, abortions in Northern Ireland expanded significantly, resulting in over 10,000 terminations in total since the legal change.

Compared to the first year of the new regulatory regime, there has been a 77pc increase of abortions taking place in Northern Ireland hospitals, the recent statistics show. However, once we include also abortions carried out abroad, the overall picture is even more shocking.

To the recently released figures, which are underestimated according to the report, one must add the number of Northern Ireland residents who had abortion in England – 172 according to the latest statistics referring to 2022 – and also those carried out in the Republic (9 in 2023).

This brings the total number of abortions involving Northern Ireland residents to approximately 3,000 per year—three times higher than the 1,014 terminations recorded in England in 2019, the final year before the introduction of the new regulations.

Unlike reports on abortion services in England and Wales, the Northern Ireland Department of Health does not provide details about marital status, previous abortions, or other demographic information. This is because such details are only recorded in a notification form if voluntarily disclosed by the woman.

However, the most recent data from Northern Ireland residents who had abortions in England reveal that only 12pc were married and 14pc had one or more previous abortions.

The recent statistics form the Department of Health confirm that restrictive legislation keeps abortion figures down. A threefold increase in only five years should prompt politicians to reconsider the current legislation.

Cost of housing not the real reason for falling fertility rates

While the cost of housing is frequently cited as a reason for delayed family formation and having children, the evidence does not strongly support this claim, according to a new study from the Policy Exchange think tank in the UK, which mentions Ireland, among other countries.

The housing crisis is often presented as a key factor in couples delaying marriage and having children. For instance, a recent survey commissioned by Accord, the Catholic marriage care service, found that “84pc of adults in Ireland say that the housing crisis is causing some couples to delay getting married and/or having children.” So, the perceived link between the cost of housing and the delaying in settling down and starting a family is very strong.

Moreover, the same poll found that “48pc of couples planning to get married would have married sooner if it weren’t for the housing situation; and 60pc of couples planning to have children would have done so earlier if it weren’t for the housing situation”.

This perception seems logical, as housing is one of the most expensive elements of starting a new family. But is there concrete evidence to support what appears to be common sense?

The new Policy Exchange report, called ‘Small State or Small Families?’ contradicts the public sentiment. The research found that there is no positive correlation between housing affordability, measured in terms of price-to-income ratios, and fertility rates.

  

The above chart shows a steady decline in fertility rates in Ireland regardless of the price of housing. (Ignore the blip during the Covid pandemic which was an exceptional period). In simple terms, fertility rates did not increase when housing became more affordable.

 

House prices in Ireland fell very sharply between 2009 and 2012. Yet, despite this decline in prices, fertility rates kept falling and have not rebounded, even though Ireland’s economy began recovering in 2010 and unemployment levels improved by 2016. This suggests falling property prices alone does not necessarily lead to higher birth rates.

As the report  says: “At the same time [as housing became more affordable], Ireland’s fertility rate fell – and it kept falling. It is hard to attribute this effect to the recession and austerity that Ireland experienced in this period. Ireland returned to growth in 2010 and by 2016, unemployment was at reasonable levels. Despite this, with much more affordable housing, fertility rates continued to fall.”

One could argue that it is not just the affordability (price-to-income ratios) of housing that matters, but also the availability of homes on the market. A sudden increase in population, such as that experienced by Ireland in recent years due to immigration, can reduce housing availability, even when affordability has not changed significantly.

Beyond Ireland, the Policy Exchange study also considered Lithuania and found again no evidence of a correlation between fertility rates and house affordability. This might appear counterintuitive, which explains why polls often cite the housing crisis as a key factor in delaying family formation and having children. However, polls capture opinions and perceptions, not data based on empirical evidence.

Indeed, across Europe, regardless of housing affordability, fertility rates are low and mostly falling.

This indicates something else is at work, and that is probably values, as recent paper of the Iona Institute argues. What do people prioritise? If, in your 20s, you value your freedom above all, and therefore avoid the major commitments involved in raising a family, then even if you can afford a home, you will delay having children anyway, and the longer you leave things into your 30s, the less likely you are to have children, or at least the number you had in mind. Hence our falling marriage and fertility rates and our rapidly ageing population.

The coming trend: couples euthanasia

The number of couples requesting euthanasia together is on the rise in the Netherlands, according to official reports. In 2024, there were 54 such cases, compared to just nine in 2018. A notable case involving a former Dutch prime minister and his wife last year appears to have contributed to the growing demand.

In the Netherlands, assisted suicide or euthanasia can be requested by individuals experiencing ‘unbearable psychological suffering’, even if they are not physically ill. The prospect of losing a lifelong partner is often considered a cause of unbearable suffering and therefore can be sufficient to qualify for euthanasia or assisted suicide. Although requests from couples are treated separately, it is unlikely that only one would be denied if both individuals are deemed mentally competent.

Couple euthanasia is not only becoming more common but is also increasingly romanticised. In February last year, media outlets framed the deaths by euthanasia of the former Dutch prime minister and his wife —and similar cases also —as part of a “love story,” a poetic ending to a long life shared together.

Influenced by this high-profile case, the number of Dutch couples euthanised together rose from 34 in 2023 to 54 in 2024, a significant increase in just one year. While the law requires explicit consent from both individuals, a type of pressure can often be masked by formal agreement. Many spouses dread the prospect of living without each other. The idea of being left alone may, even unconsciously, pressure someone to make the same decision as their partner.

The risk of a contagion effect is really high. It is difficult to ignore the possibility that one partner’s decision could influence the other, even without direct coercion. Moreover, cases of joint euthanasia are not limited to romantic couples. In the Netherlands there have also been instances involving siblings or a mother and her child. In such cases, the reasoning is similar: the surviving individual may consider life unbearable without their loved one.

A recent poll conducted among Dutch citizens with partners found that 75pc were open to the idea of couple euthanasia. However, 60pc expressed concerns about the potential pressure involved, while 40pc believed it would be difficult to determine whether the desire to die was entirely independent.

Commenting on these findings, Philip Nitschke, the inventor of the controversial “Sarco” suicide pod, tweeted: “The Sarco Duo is currently in production”.

Where others are concerned, or scandalised, by the idea of couples killing themselves together, pro-euthanasia activists see it as another opportunity to promote their ideology.

Nitschke is the founder and director of Exit International, an organisation advocating for assisted suicide to be available on demand to any adult, regardless of their reason.

The growing acceptance of couple euthanasia in the Netherlands is part of the broader normalisation that inevitably follows the legalisation of such procedures. Over time, initial restrictions tend to be relaxed, and more individuals may feel influenced, if not explicitly coerced, into choosing to die alongside their loved ones.