Finally an official report rings the alarm bell about falling births

 

A new report from the National Economic and Social Council (NESC) warns that Ireland is sleepwalking into a demographic crisis. For the first time, that warning is coming from an important State-funded body.

NESC is an independent advisory body that provides long-term economic, social and environmental policy advice to the Irish Government and the Taoiseach. In its report Building a Virtuous Demographic Cycle, NESC argues that Ireland has already passed “peak baby” and “peak child”. Ireland is experiencing slow but profound changes in its population: fewer babies are being born, and the share of children in the overall population is now beginning to fall.

Birth rates have been declining for years and are now well below replacement. Without careful planning, these shifts will place increasing pressure on public services, social supports and public finances in the decades ahead.

NESC sets out two possible futures. One is a “vicious cycle” in which short-term pressures on housing, services and infrastructure lead policymakers to slow population growth. That would further depress fertility, increase emigration by Irish people, reduce the number of workers and place heavier burdens on public finances, creating a downward spiral that is difficult to reverse.

The alternative is a “virtuous cycle” that treats demographic change as an opportunity, the paper argues. This would mean aligning investment in infrastructure and services with higher population projections, signalling confidence in the future, and building capacity to meet people’s needs. A more balanced age structure and higher participation in the workforce would improve fiscal sustainability, support quality of life and strengthen social cohesion.

To achieve this, the report recommends coordinated action across six areas: long-term fiscal preparation; strategic support for families; proactive migration and integration policies; higher labour force participation; healthcare reform with an emphasis on healthy ageing; and balanced regional development.

Under the “strategic support for families” heading, the report calls for affordable childcare and housing, adequate parental leave, and income and welfare policies that reduce the financial and practical risks of having children.

Notably absent from the report, however, is any mention of the impact of around 10,000 abortions per year on Ireland’s declining birth rate, a silence that is difficult to justify in a report that claims to confront demographic reality of Ireland.

NESC stresses that Ireland has only a short window in which to act.

The report also notes the lack of demographers in Ireland. How are we supposed to study this problem properly if we lack the expertise?

The Resolution Foundation’s New Year Outlook 2026 report reaches a similar conclusion to the NESC report for the UK from a different angle. It suggests that 2026 may be the first year in which deaths exceed births, meaning that natural population growth disappears altogether. With fertility at record lows, future population growth will depend largely on net migration.

Immigration, the report suggests, will become ever more central to sustaining the UK’s population and economy, even as it remains politically contentious as simply bringing in more people does not solve a collapsing birth rate. Large inflows of low-skilled migrants may ease short-term labour shortages, but they do not reverse demographic decline and can become a long-term fiscal burden if they are not able to become sustained net contributors. Demographic renewal cannot be imported; it has to be rebuilt at home.